Weekly Newsletter #1

Super Micro Computers maybe finding support and looking “cheap” given NVDA’s 50+% rally off recent lows.

Gold might have become more important in the grand scheme of things once again, but are we temporarily overbought vs silver? With immediate trade war fears gone, not a bad pairs-trade to maintain exposure to precious metals with a little bit of a safety cushion.

India’s Nifty 50 gave room to join a quick and violent short squeeze as stocks came out of India-Pakistan tensions with a resounding victory on the Indian side. Indian defence companies caught a massive bid. Overall sentiment has flipped aggressively bullish once again. With India being relatively unaffected by Trump’s tariffs, this could easily continue to ATHs (only 5% away now), should nothing crazy happen externally.

The JPY and EUR may be tactically overbought, on overblown fears of an imminent death of the US dollar reserve. But remember that such things don’t happen overnight. With the DXY down 10% in a couple months and positioning massively stretched for further downside, a USD rally here could become really painful…

Crude continues to attract selling. But current prices incorporate peak tariff war fears and OPEC+ supply increase headlines. What if both are milder than expected?

Looks like 3% is the new 2% inflation targeting and soon 4% will be the new 3%. The Fed is buying itself room to not cut rates because they know they can’t. Get used to 5% on USTs folks: welcome to the real world and natural rate of interest. The BoJ is finding out about reality now too, and soon Europe will as well.

The current investment community has seen nothing but a buy-the-dip era in both bonds and stocks for a good 40 years. What about the opposite scenario, a falling bond and stock market for the next 10? Don’t tell me it “can’t happen”, that just betrays that you haven’t studied history nor traded long enough. As Taleb says, the most profitable traders cross-sectionally at any point in time are the least fit for survival in the long run.

If that wasn’t enough, Moody’s also downgraded US debt just before close. With equity bulls possibly outstretched as it is, Monday should be a fun trading day…